Outstanding recovery: OECD forecasts for 2021

 

The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) published its 2021 World Economic Outlook and confirmed the exceptional nature of this recovery with unexpected forecasts. The OECD forecasts a 5,8% increase in world GDP, which is 0.2% more than the March estimation. 

2020 has not been without difficulties for the world economy, which has shrunk by 3.5% following the crisis we are experiencing. Activity slowed, offices emptied and time stood still as people shut down. Following an unprecedented year, an extraordinary recovery is expected this year. Laurence Boone, the chief economist of the OECD, announces that “if vaccination accelerates and people spend the money they have saved, the growth could be even stronger” and she adds: “it is the highest figure since 1973”.

Nevertheless, the recovery will not be homogeneous and although most advanced economies are expected to return to their GDP levels by the end of 2022, countries like Argentina are expected to wait more than 5 years. As noted earlier, countries that have rapidly vaccinated their populations against COVID19 and can control infections have better conditions for economic recovery. Resumption will be exceptional if countries demonstrate effective and broad vaccination programs and public health policies. 

Workers, who have also been affected by this crisis, will experience a special recovery. As the crisis has affected the labor market, inequalities among workers have increased. The OECD states that the share of skilled jobs increased in almost all 38 OECD countries during the pandemic, at the expense of others. The more or less high level of public aid for workers, companies, or certain sectors such as tourism will allow a real revival of activity and will explain the relatively important strength of the economic recovery of the different countries. One of the main challenges is to protect the incomes of the low-skilled workers and to improve training programs and access to the labor market. Training is a key tool to ensure that this recovery is beneficial to the greatest number of people. HR functions will have to do everything possible to meet the qualification needs of the most vulnerable employees and thus enable them to ensure their employability in a world affected by the crisis. 

The growth outlook has improved considerably, but it is not guaranteed for all companies. To take advantage of the opportunities created by the anticipated remarkable resumption, we need to make it possible and create its foundations now. After more than a year of living and working differently, companies and employees finally have a clearer goal, a less vague future, although still uncertain. We can look forward to the future, but we need to start preparing now because the resumption will not wait. To seize the opportunity of this renewed growth, organizations will have to rethink their management style and accompany their employees in this return to “normal”. 

As life slowly returns to normal around us, we must ask ourselves what effects the crisis has had on our behavior and motivation. The crisis has had a major impact on employees, especially with the widespread use of remote work. Reorganization issues are numerous and decisive for companies’ future, and we must prepare for them now. In order not to miss the resumption and to prepare your employees for the challenges it brings, training is essential. The HR function plays a crucial role because it can provide employees with the necessary resources to take over in the best conditions and to understand the issues they encounter.

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Starting young: learning entrepreneurship

By Lamia Kamal-Chaoui, Director, Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, OECD. 

This article is extracted from the White Paper “Get ready for the Skills Economy“. Coorpacademy and Citizen Entrepreneurs, the association constituting the French G20 YEA delegation, co-edited this exclusive collection of insight papers on education, used as a discussion piece for this summit.

You’ll find in the White Paper articles about how building a learning culture can address employability challenges, academic insights on Learning Sciences and computational thinking, or how the content and the container must collide in a Netflix-like way to provide the most personalized Learning experience. Articles are signed by Corporate Learning Leaders from various organizations and institutions: Accenture, BNP Paribas, Coorpacademy, emlyon Business School, EY,  OECD, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, University of Wyoming…

Starting young: learning entrepreneurship – by Lamia Kamal-Chaoui.

Youth are entrepreneurial! New business creation data across OECD countries for 2012-2016 show that 18-30 year olds were more likely to be working on setting up a new business than their older counterparts (6.6%  versus 6.1%), more likely to be setting up businesses in teams of 3 or more, and had a new business ownership rate matching that of adults of over 30 years old (3.5%) (OECD/ EU, 2017).

However, young people face numerous barriers to entrepreneurship, often over and above those faced by their older peers – in identifying opportunities, accessing financing, developing networks, and managing teams. They also often hesitate to start for fear of failure or because they lack the skills (Figure 1). Entrepreneurship education can be a critical support in helping youth to develop an entrepreneurial spirit and obtain the skills needed to become successful entrepreneurs. It is a high-return investment.


Figure 1: Entrepreneurship skills are a greater barrier to business creation for youth

Percentage of population who responded “yes” to the question:

“Do you have the knowledge and skills to start a business?”, Data from 2012-16

Percentage of population who responded “yes” to the question: “Do you have the knowledge and skills to start a business?”, Data from 2012-16

Notes: See Figure 3.13 in OECD/EU (2017). Source: OECD/EU (2017) using special tabulations of the 2012-16 adult population surveys from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (2017).


Efforts are increasing to build entrepreneurship competencies through formal education …

Courses and other supports to build entrepreneurship skills in schools, vocational education and training providers, and higher education institutions have become increasingly common in the last decade. They focus on issues of perception about the desirability and feasibility of the entrepreneurial action – either as an entrepreneur or an entrepreneurial employee – and developing the ability to cope with failure.

“Young people face numerous barriers to entrepreneurship, often over and above those faced by their older peers – in identifying opportunities, accessing financing, developing networks, and managing teams.”

However, educational science shows us that developing certain attitudes, knowledge and skills is more effective if started with early intervention (Cunha and Heckman, 2010).

In the area of entrepreneurship skills, a change of content, pedagogy, learning outcomes, and assessment strategies can be introduced as the student progresses, with a gradual increase in the extent that a start-up orientation is offered (OECD, 2015). Some countries (e.g. the United States, Ireland, and Denmark) have already introduced such a progressive approach, but in most OECD countries there is still a need for more entrepreneurship education activities at lower levels of education (GEM, 2017).

Spotlight on higher education

Higher education institutions (HEIs) can be great generators of entrepreneurial individuals. To do so, they themselves need to adopt entrepreneurial approaches to entrepreneurship teaching and supporting graduates who are motivated to start up new ventures — particularly with half of young people accessing higher education across the OECD area. According to the Global University Entrepreneurial Spirit Students’ Survey across 50 countries in 2016, 8% of students intended to start a business right after graduation and 30% considered this a likely career option five years after graduation. The OECD and European Commission have developed the HEInnovate guiding framework for HEIs in this area (www.heinnovate.eu). It identifies many good practices, such as giving students the possibility to document the entrepreneurship competencies they have developed in their studies and extracurricular activities, for example with diploma supplements or other certificates.

What are key areas for government action?

Develop a progressive approach at each stage of the education process. Educa- tional curricula and systems should lay the foundations of an entrepreneurial mind-set at early stages of learning.

Support for teachers. Effective entrepreneurship education requires adequate preparation time for teachers, tailored education material, and guidelines that facilitate the collaboration with external partners (OECD, 2015). In many countries, teacher networks have been formed to provide peer support (e.g. the U.S. Network for Teaching Entrepreneurship, NFTE).

Closing gaps in start-up support. Start-up support should be provided for students who are motivated and able to start a business in the near future. This can be facilitated by creating close connections between education institutions and local business support organisations. Furthermore, higher education students should be supported to combine studies and start-up efforts, for example by receiving a special status similar to sport champions.

References: 

Cunha F. and J. J. Heckman (2010), “Investing in Our Young People”, in Reynolds, A. J. et al., (eds.), Childhood programs and practices in the first decade of life, Cambridge University Press, New York, 381-414.

GEM (2017), Global Entrepreneurship Mo- nitor Report 2016/2017, published online, www.gemconsortium.org.

OECD (2015), From Creativity to Initiative: Building Entrepreneurial Competencies in Schools. A Guidance Note for Policy Makers, published online, http://www.oecd.org/site/entrepreneurship360/blog/guidancenote-policymakers.html

 OECD/EU (2017), The Missing Entrepreneurs 2017: Policies for Inclusive Entrepreneurship, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264283602-en.

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